Allies of the prime minister are sounding the alarm. They say a leadership challenge now would be “reckless” and “dangerous”.
Yet behind closed doors, frustration is growing.
The current mood in Labour
Since winning power in July 2024, Starmer and the Labour Party have faced increasing turbulence. Polls are slipping and the next big test looms: the Budget on 26 November and local elections in May.
Inside No. 10, the atmosphere is described as “full bunker mode”, with aides and ministers bracing for internal revolt.
Why the warning now?
Starmer’s allies say the stakes are high:
- A sudden leadership contest could shake market confidence, undermine international relationships and damage Labour’s chances of a second term.
- The budget will reportedly include major tax increases and may break manifesto promises. A bad result would deepen unease within the party.
- Rebel MPs worry the party is drifting from its mission and losing momentum. But the leadership argues now is not the time for internal division.
In short, the message from Starmer’s camp is: you risk everything if you move now.
Who’s being warned? Who might rise?
While no formal challenge has been launched, several senior figures are mentioned:
- Wes Streeting (Health Secretary) is seen by many as the frontrunner should a contest happen. He has denied plotting.
- Other names floated: Angela Rayner, Shabana Mahmood, Ed Miliband, among others.
- Starmer’s allies believe they can detect early manoeuvres and want to “flush out” any challengers before they gain momentum.
The warning is aimed at both would-be challengers and wary MPs: don’t rock the boat yet.
What could trigger the move?
Several flashpoints could spark a leadership crisis:
- The upcoming Budget: with reports of up to £30 billion in fiscal shortfall and potential tax rises, the margin for error is tiny.
- May’s local and devolved elections: if Labour performs poorly, internal pressure is likely to rise.
- Backbench frustration: Some MPs argue the government is not delivering fast enough on promises, risking voters drifting away.
If one or more of these tilts badly, it could set the context for a leadership challenge.
Why Starmer’s team is so nervous
There are several reasons Starmer’s allies are keen to shut down talk of a challenge early:
- Historical precedent: No Labour prime minister has ever been removed by their own MPs in office. A successful coup would be unprecedented and risky.
- Loss of credibility: If Labour is seen to be tearing itself apart, it could hand the advantage to rival parties, particularly the Reform UK party.
- Electoral positioning: Starmer is still early in his term; his team argues that changing leaders now would cost more than staying the course.
Their argument: the risk of destabilisation now far outweighs any potential gain.
The challengers’ case
From the other side, the argument runs that:
- Tipping or trailing in polls demands action rather than waiting. Some MPs believe waiting risks irrelevance.
- A perceived lack of visibility or dynamism in Starmer’s leadership is feeding dissatisfaction.
- The idea of investing in a new leader now could give Labour the fresh start it believes voters want.
In short, some believe the danger lies in inaction as much as in action.
What happens next?
The timeline ahead is critical:
- Late November: The Budget could prove the defining moment. A misstep may crystallise opposition.
- Early 2026: Focus will shift to the local elections and devolved polls. Results here might determine whether momentum shifts.
- Meanwhile, Starmer’s camp is quietly reaching out to backbenchers and ministers, reinforcing loyalty.
Any formal leadership election in Labour requires 80 MP nominations (a fifth of the parliamentary party) and then support from unions or constituency parties. The bar is high, which works in Starmer’s favour for now.
What it all means for you
- If Labour is seen as distracted by internal disputes, public trust may fall further.
- A leadership change mid-term could disrupt government plans, slow policy delivery, and increase uncertainty for businesses and households.
- If the Budget stings, or election results are poor, the risk of change will grow, but so will the stakes.
- For voters: stability in leadership doesn’t guarantee strong action, but instability almost certainly lowers the odds of consistent delivery.
Conclusion
Starmer’s allies are trying to close down talk of a coup before it starts. They argue the risks are too great, the timing too early. For those within Labour who are fed up, the counter-argument is that waiting could cost the party dearly.
This moment has a dual character: it is one of defence and one of opportunity. If the government can deliver the Budget and show movement ahead of the local elections, the warnings may have done their job. If not, the very public failure of the challenge may become inevitable.
What remains clear is this: the internal battle is no longer just about policy. It is about power, survival and whether Labour can convert its majority into sustained progress before the next test. The British public will be watching carefully.
